Montreal Housing Market Forecast 2026: Community Update

February 9, 2026

As a community-focused newsroom, Montral Times—Montral News, Canadian Perspectives—delivers grounded, locally relevant reporting for Montreal and Quebec residents. In this installment, we explore the Montreal housing market forecast 2026 and what it could mean for families, renters, investors, newcomers, and long-time residents. Our goal is to translate macroeconomic projections into practical guidance for households and small businesses across our city and beyond. The Montreal housing market forecast 2026 is not a single number; it’s a tapestry of affordability pressures, supply dynamics, policy shifts, and local realities that affect everyday decisions—from whether to extend a mortgage to where to rent or buy in our diverse neighborhoods. This piece weaves together the best available public forecasts and local observations to help readers plan with clarity.

What shapes the Montreal landscape in 2026

Montreal’s housing outlook in 2026 is shaped by a blend of macroeconomic forces and city-specific dynamics. Multiple reputable forecasters project value changes, inventory fluctuations, and regional differences that will influence buyers, renters, landlords, and developers. At the core, several factors interact to drive the Montreal housing market forecast 2026:

Population, migration, and labor markets: Montreal’s population and the balance between immigration, domestic outflows, and local job growth influence demand for homes and rental units. As one macro perspective notes, population dynamics and GDP trends play a key role in housing affordability and construction activity in Montreal and the broader Quebec region. (pwc.com)
Supply and construction activity: The mix of new housing starts—especially rental-oriented projects vs. for-sale condos—impacts vacancy, rents, and price pressures. Market watchers have highlighted that in Montreal, condo development has slowed in some forecasts, while rental supply remains a critical lever for market balance. CMHC-driven and industry forecasts point to rental stock and starts as central to the 2026 narrative. (pwc.com)
Price trajectories by property type: Buyers and renters often observe divergent paths between single-family homes, condominiums, and rental properties. Forecasters have signaled different rhythms for these segments in Greater Montreal and across Quebec, with condos typically more price-sensitive and single-family homes showing varied demand depending on location and price tier. (royallepage.ca)
Regional splits within the metro area: The Greater Montreal Area (GMA) is a complex mosaic of central urban cores, inner suburbs, and outlying communities. Forecasts often show a gentler price rise in some segments and more pronounced changes in others, reflecting inventory, inventory mix, and buyer preferences. Royal LePage’s Quebec market forecast and regional notes emphasize this regional nuance. (royallepage.ca)
Policy, financing, and interest rates: While policy levers and mortgage costs are not the sole determinants of the Montreal housing forecast 2026, changes in interest rates and government incentives can alter affordability and demand. Industry analyses discuss the broader Canadian context while calling out Quebec-specific resilience and price dynamics. (royallepage.ca)

In short, Montreal’s 2026 forecast sits at the intersection of affordability pressures, inventory dynamics, and regional contrasts—especially between the city core, the suburbs, and surrounding Quebec markets. The convergence of these forces suggests a year of recalibration rather than a uniform boom or bust, with distinct experiences for buyers, renters, and investors depending on neighborhood and price point.

The Quebec real estate market proved resilient in 2025, positioning itself favourably compared to other major Canadian regions, according to Royal LePage. In 2026, observers anticipate continued demand dynamics and price movement, though the pace may differ by submarket. — Dominic St-Pierre, executive vice president, Royal LePage, in the Quebec Market Forecast materials. (royallepage.ca)

Forecast snapshots: what major forecasters are saying about Montreal in 2026

To help readers understand the breadth of expectations, here is a compact comparison of notable forecasts, with a focus on the Montreal area and the greater Quebec market. This section synthesizes published numbers from Royal LePage, CMHC-related analyses, and related Quebec market coverage.

Royal LePage: Greater Montreal Area and broader Quebec outlook

Greater Montreal Area (GMA): Forecasts around 2026 point to continued price activity with a modest to moderate rise. One Royal LePage forecast indicates the GMA’s aggregate price rising around 5.0% in 2026 relative to 2025, with sub-segments showing variation (single-family and condo) but an overall positive trajectory. The report notes demand around properties priced under $1 million remains active, while certain luxury segments face softer activity as inventory remains high. (royallepage.ca)
Provincial view (Quebec): Royal LePage projects a 7.0% increase in aggregate home prices in Quebec by late 2026 (fourth quarter vs. 2025), with the breakdown showing stronger gains in single-family markets and more tempered growth in condominiums. The Greater Montreal Area is highlighted as a key market within the province with projected price growth, while other regions see different dynamics. (royallepage.ca)
Detailed numbers for submarkets within GMA: In the forecast, single-family homes in the broader province trend higher (for example, a projected 6.0% increase in the single-family detached home segment province-wide) and condo prices rising by a smaller share (around 2.5% to 3.0% depending on submarket). In Greater Montreal, condo price sensitivity and inventory shifts contribute to nuanced outcomes, and the city center may see different trajectories than the suburbs. These figures reflect Royal LePage’s Market Survey forecasts, which emphasize the heterogeneity of Montreal’s housing market. (royallepage.ca)
Civic and neighborhood implications: Royal LePage’s notes emphasize that purchases in the under-$1 million range have remained resilient, while the luxury segment faced headwinds in parts of the city during 2025 and 2026 forecasts suggest ongoing recalibration rather than a uniform surge. This nuance matters for readers weighing where to buy, rent, or invest in Montreal. (royallepage.ca)

CMP (Québec Market Trends): provincial and CMA-level insights

Provincial forecast for 2026 (median prices): The Quebec market forecast projects that the provincial median price for a single-family home could reach about $520,200 in 2026, representing roughly a 6% increase year over year, while the median condo price could rise about 3% to around $408,000. This underscores that price gains are expected but not uniform across property types. (mpamag.com)
Montreal CMA (sales and direction): The CMP analysis indicates the Montreal CMA may see a decline in sales of around 3% in 2026, with inventory pressures and the balance between supply and demand shaping the price environment. This highlights the possibility of heavier competition in select segments and more negotiation leverage for buyers in certain condo markets as inventory rises. (mpamag.com)
Regional contrasts: The CMP piece notes that Montreal’s path could diverge from other Quebec regions, with City of Montreal and surrounding CMA dynamics offering a different pace of price changes and affordability challenges. This regional nuance reinforces why local context matters in 2026. (mpamag.com)

CMHC-anchored and multinational forecasts: market context for Montreal

CMHC and institutional perspectives on starts and rentals: A PwC Canada briefing on emerging real estate trends in Canada includes Montreal-specific observations, such as a tendency toward rental development and a modest growth in total housing starts. The briefing notes that Montreal’s rental stock expansion and a relatively small condo-building pipeline will influence vacancy rates and affordability. While the forecast cautions about capital-intensive condo projects, rental housing remains central to Montreal’s 2026 housing story. (pwc.com)
Vacancy, supply, and affordability signals: The same PwC source references CMHC projections that vacancy is likely to trend higher as supply grows and the market recalibrates. In Montreal, a rising vacancy rate—driven by inventory expansion in certain submarkets—could influence rents and buyer activity, particularly in areas with high condo density or where new rental stock is concentrated. (pwc.com)

Supplemental regional context from 2025-2026 coverage

2025-2026 market cadence in Quebec: A Royal LePage forecast piece from late 2025 projects a spring 2026 revival in activity for Quebec’s housing market, with an expected modest price uptick and a gradual shift in the balance between supply and demand across the province. The Greater Montreal Area, in particular, is described as a market with continued momentum but evolving inventory dynamics that could affect pricing and negotiations in 2026. (royallepage.ca)
Montreal real estate price and activity snapshot (Q4 2025): The Q4 2025 results from Royal LePage show an elevated price environment with a 4.5% year-over-year increase in the Greater Montreal Area aggregate price and ongoing variations by sector (single-family vs. condo). Royal LePage’s Q4 2025 snapshot also includes the assertion that Montreal remains a market with meaningful activity under $1 million, and it forecasts a 5.0% price rise in 2026 for the Greater Montreal Area. While these are forward-looking, they provide a credible anchor for readers tracking 2026 expectations. (royallepage.ca)

What these numbers mean in practical terms for Montreal residents

Buyers with moderate budgets may find opportunities in the suburbs or in condo segments with growing inventory. A projected 5.0% price rise for the GMA in 2026, along with 6% increases for single-family homes in some submarkets, suggests continued appreciation but with pockets of more favorable negotiation power in certain condo segments as supply grows. (royallepage.ca)
Renters and aspiring homeowners should watch inventory dynamics closely. Rental starts and rental stock growth are highlighted as a central theme in the 2026 Montreal housing story, potentially offering relief if supply accelerates and vacancy nudges upward. The PwC Canada analysis emphasizes rental-driven starts and vacancy implications for Montreal. (pwc.com)
Investors and developers face a nuanced landscape. The combination of constrained condo development in some forecasts and a shift toward rental-led supply suggests investors may diversify strategies across asset types and neighborhoods to balance risk and return. PwC and Royal LePage both point to regional heterogeneity and the importance of area-specific diligence. (pwc.com)

Forecast portrait by submarket: a closer look at neighborhoods and sectors

Montreal’s housing market is not uniform. Different neighborhoods and sectors within the Greater Montreal Area will experience distinct trajectories in 2026. Here are the major sub-market themes surfaced by forecasters and market watchers:

Core urban neighborhoods (central Montreal, downtown, and near-core areas): Historically tight supply in some of these areas can sustain relatively stronger price resilience but may be offset by broader affordability constraints. The luxury segment’s slower activity in 2025 has tempered expectations, yet central locations may continue to attract strong demand from urban professionals and downsizers. Forecasters emphasize that inventory levels and price sensitivity will vary by block and street, creating a nuanced picture for central buyers. (royallepage.ca)
Suburban belts (west and east Montreal suburbs, and nearby CMA zones): Suburban markets are often characterized by more affordable entry points and higher sway from single-family demand. As inventory grows in these areas, buyers gain more leverage, potentially moderating price acceleration. The Royal LePage regional notes highlight the suburban attractiveness with a more balanced supply-demand dynamic in some quarters, though price gains can still be meaningful in the broader Quebec market. (royallepage.ca)
Rental-heavy corridors and planning zones: With rental construction highlighted as a key factor in 2026, neighborhoods that attract renters—due to transit access, schools, and amenities—may see rental price movements and vacancy shifts that influence overall market balance. The PwC Canada assessment emphasizes rental-driven starts and the resulting vacancy implications as a key variable for 2026. (pwc.com)
Emerging and gentrifying pockets: As inventory expands in certain condo and townhome segments, early-stage areas with new developments could offer opportunities for first-time buyers and families seeking more space at attainable prices. The CMP and Royal LePage projections collectively suggest a period of recalibration with regional variance, which often benefits informed buyers who conduct neighborhood-specific due diligence. (mpamag.com)

In practice, residents should map their priorities—access to transit, school quality, neighborhood safety, and long-term affordability—against the forecasted trajectories for the property types they’re considering. While the citywide forecast provides a directional sense of where prices and activity may head, local micro-markets can move faster or slower depending on planning decisions, new projects, and macroeconomic signals.

A practical guide for Montreal households in 2026

To help families and individuals act confidently in light of the Montreal housing market forecast 2026, here are practical tips drawn from the forecast landscape and community-oriented reporting. This section is designed for readers who want actionable steps, not just numbers.

Understand your true budget and timeline

Before shopping, compute a comfortable price range that considers mortgage costs, property taxes, maintenance, and utilities. Forecasts suggest price growth is likely but not uniform; a solid budget helps weather any regional price shifts or rate changes.

Prioritize neighborhoods with improving inventory signals

Look for submarkets where inventory is rising and where rents are stabilizing or decreasing to identify opportunities for negotiation. Central markets may remain price-sensitive, while certain suburbs could offer more favorable terms as supply increases.

Plan for rental flexibility

If you’re a potential buyer who might convert a rental to ownership later, staying informed about rental market trends and new developments can help you time decisions and secure favorable lease terms while you search.

Consider a longer horizon for home improvements

If you’re purchasing, factor in renovation plans that could add value over the holding period. In a market where price growth is evolving, upgrades can meaningfully affect resale potential and affordability by improving property efficiency and appeal.

Build a local network of trusted professionals

Real estate agents with deep Montreal-area knowledge, mortgage brokers familiar with Quebec financing rules, and property tax specialists can help you navigate 2026’s complexities. Local insights into zoning, school catchments, and transit options matter as price paths diverge across the metro area.

Be ready for negotiation windows

In markets with growing inventory or shifting demand, buyers may gain leverage in certain segments. Prepare by getting pre-approved, choosing neighborhoods with more balanced supply, and having contingencies for financing and inspections.

Watch policy updates and mortgage rate trends

While forecasters point to resiliency, changes in interest rates and public policy can shift affordability and demand. Stay tuned to provincial and national developments that influence borrowing costs and incentives for homebuyers.

Invest in knowledge and community

Read diversified sources, attend local housing forums, and engage with community organizations to understand how housing policy and local plans affect neighborhoods you care about.

The Montreal housing market forecast 2026 isn’t a single verdict; it’s a forecast mosaic that invites careful planning and community-focused decision-making. As Montral Times continues to cover local news, we’ll monitor policy shifts, neighborhood redevelopment plans, and the lived experiences of Montreal residents as 2026 unfolds.

Data notes, uncertainties, and data gaps

Local nuance matters: Forecasts from Royal LePage, CMP, and PwC all emphasize regional variation within the Greater Montreal Area and across Quebec. The numbers are directional and depend on several interrelated factors, including immigration patterns, wage growth, and housing supply. Readers should treat submarket projections as the most relevant for personal decisions rather than relying solely on citywide aggregates. (royallepage.ca)
Data gaps in submarket detail: While provincial and regional forecasts give helpful boundaries, precise 2026 numbers for every Montreal neighborhood or CMA subdistrict are not always published in a single compilation. Where available, we cite the most specific figures (e.g., condo vs. single-family price trajectories, or city center vs. suburbs). For a more granular view, readers should consult the latest market surveys and local brokerage reports—per the sources quoted here. (royallepage.ca)
The role of rental construction: Several forecasters highlight rental housing as a critical driver. The Montreal market’s path will strongly depend on the pace and geographic distribution of rental starts and the ability (or inability) of developers to deliver new rental stock. This nuance can meaningfully affect vacancy and rent dynamics in 2026. (pwc.com)
Currency of forecasts: Forecasts are updated regularly, and revisions may occur as new data becomes available. We will continue to monitor and update readers with credible, cited sources as the market evolves through 2026. The numbers cited here reflect the sources listed and are intended to provide a coherent picture for Montreal residents seeking context.

Visual aids: a compact comparison table

Source	Area	2026 Forecast (Key Metric)	Notable Notes
Royal LePage (Quebec Market Forecast)	Greater Montreal Area	Aggregate price up 5.0% in 2026; single-family up about 6.0%; condo up ~2.5%	Highlights sensitivity by property type; central markets vary by submarket. (royallepage.ca)
Royal LePage (Montreal Q4 2025 Report)	Greater Montreal Area	Forecast 5.0% price increase in 2026	Mid- and upper-range markets show differing dynamics; inventory considerations noted. (royallepage.ca)
CMP (Quebec Market Trends)	Quebec CMA including Montreal CMA	Provincial single-family up ~6%; condo up ~3%; Montreal CMA sales down ~3%	Regional divergence expected; condo markets may see shifting negotiation pressure. (mpamag.com)
PwC Canada (Emerging Trends)	Montreal area context within Canada	Rental starts dominate new supply; vacancy to rise toward 2027; condo development limited	Emphasizes rental market as a key driver; CMHC projections used as reference. (pwc.com)

Note: These figures reflect published forecasts from noted firms as of late 2025 and early 2026. They are subject to revision as new data becomes available and as policy, interest rates, and migration patterns shift. Readers should view these as directional indicators rather than guarantees.

Quotes from market observers

The Quebec real estate market proved resilient in 2025, positioning itself favourably compared to other major Canadian regions. Although economic uncertainty has dampened some consumer confidence elsewhere, Quebecers have maintained healthy home buying activity, leading to notable appreciation in property prices. We anticipate steady demand and stable inventory levels in 2026, with a notable increase in prices across the province. — Royal LePage executive leadership, quoted in the 2026 Quebec Market Forecast materials. (royallepage.ca)

This community-informed perspective underlines the practical reality: Montreal residents face a mix of growth and recalibration in 2026, with price gains possible but uneven across neighborhoods and property types. For many households, the question is not simply “Will prices go up?” but “Where in Montreal will the gains land, and how will inventory shape my negotiation power and monthly costs?”

A note on the role of Montral Times

As an independent voice covering Montral, Quebec, and Canada, Montral Times aims to deliver thoughtful, locally grounded reporting that helps readers understand complex trends in plain language. The Montreal housing market forecast 2026 article is part of our ongoing effort to connect big-picture economics with the everyday realities of Montreal residents—renters, owners, newcomers, and long-time neighbors alike. We’ll continue to follow policy developments, financing shifts, and neighborhood-level changes that influence the market in 2026 and beyond.

A brief glossary for readers new to real estate terminology

Aggregate price: A composite measure used by some market surveys that reflects overall price movement across a defined market, combining multiple property types. (royallepage.ca)
Single-family detached home: A standalone house not attached to another residence, typically commanding different price dynamics than condos in urban markets. (royallepage.ca)
Condominium (condo): A unit within a multi-unit building, often a focus of Montreal’s urban housing market; pricing and inventory can diverge from single-family homes. (royallepage.ca)
CMA: Census Metropolitan Area; a geographic unit used in Canadian market reporting that can influence the interpretation of forecasts for Montreal and surrounding regions. (mpamag.com)
Starts: New housing starts refer to the initiation of construction on new housing units, a fundamental metric that signals supply dynamics in the market. (pwc.com)

Looking ahead: how residents can stay informed and prepared

Stay informed with credible sources: The Montreal housing market forecast 2026 is a moving target. Regularly consult reports from established firms like Royal LePage, CMHC-affiliated analyses, and major market watchers to capture the latest shifts in Montreal’s submarkets. (royallepage.ca)
Engage with local professionals: An experienced Montreal-area real estate agent, a Quebec mortgage broker, and a reliable property tax advisor can help readers translate forecasts into actionable decisions—whether buying, selling, or renting in 2026. The heterogeneity of Montreal’s market underscores the importance of local guidance. (royallepage.ca)
Consider long-term community goals: For many residents, housing decisions are intertwined with neighborhood quality of life, schools, transit access, and municipal planning. The forecast suggests continued price movement, but the best long-term strategies align with community priorities and personal circumstances.
Share and discuss: Montral Times invites readers to engage with the reporting—share experiences, ask questions, and contribute perspectives to our ongoing coverage of the Montreal housing market forecast 2026. This collaborative approach helps our community understand the pressures and opportunities of the year ahead.

Final thoughts: sorting through the 2026 forecast with clarity

The Montreal housing market forecast 2026 is not a single, uniform forecast but a mosaic of projections that reflect Montreal’s unique neighborhoods, demographics, and housing needs. Forecasters foresee price growth in many segments, alongside inventory-driven shifts that could create more negotiation opportunities, especially in condominiums and suburban markets. Quebec-wide dynamics—particularly in the Greater Montreal Area—will be shaped by rental supply, price trajectories across property types, and the pace at which new housing begins to flow into the market. For Montreal residents, this means approaching 2026 with a strategy that balances affordability, neighborhood desirability, and long-term personal goals. Stay engaged with local reporting, consult multiple sources, and consider your own timeline and budget as you navigate the Montreal housing market forecast 2026.

Montral Times remains committed to delivering in-depth reporting that centers community perspectives, practical guidance, and timely analysis. By understanding the forecast landscape and the lived realities of Montreal households, readers can make informed choices that support stable home ownership, sustainable rents, and vibrant neighborhoods in 2026 and beyond.

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